How It Works

Pipeline

1. 01

   Collect

   Fixtures, statistics, availability and odds are pulled and stored against the match record.

2. 02

   Score

   Each match receives home win, draw and away win probabilities, a draw risk score and a winner score.

3. 03

   Filter

   If draw risk exceeds the model threshold or the winner score is too low, the match is published as NO PICK.

4. 04

   Confirm

   An early pick is provisional. Once lineups drop the match is re-scored and either upgraded to a final pick or withdrawn.

5. 05

   Record

   The probabilities, draw risk, confidence, pick and full input snapshot are stored permanently with the model version.

Inputs per match

• Fixture list

  Competition, kick-off time, matchday and season for every scheduled game.

• Recent form

  Results and performance trend across the last five to ten matches.

• Home / away splits

  Separate home and away records rather than a single blended record.

• Goals & clean sheets

  Goals scored, goals conceded and clean-sheet frequency.

• xG and xGA

  Expected goals for and against, plus shots and shots on target.

• Draw frequency

  Team draw rate and the historic draw tendency of the competition.

• Head-to-head

  Previous meetings between the two clubs, weighted by recency and venue.

• Squad availability

  Injuries, suspensions, expected lineup and confirmed lineup.

• Market signals

  Bookmaker odds converted to implied probabilities where available.

• Match importance

  Relegation pressure, title race, dead rubbers and cup context.

Confidence levels